Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-brokered 30-day ceasefire following discussions with American officials in Saudi Arabia.
The proposal includes a commitment from Washington to resume military assistance and intelligence sharing, both of which were recently frozen by U.S. President Donald Trump. While Russia has yet to formally respond, officials in Moscow have indicated they are reviewing the details. However, a ceasefire without concessions in Russia’s favor remains unlikely.
Few analysts argue that Ukraine is winning the war at this stage. Russia holds a clear military advantage, though its progress on the battlefield has been measured rather than decisive. In the Kursk region, Ukraine now faces the real risk of its defensive lines collapsing.
Since Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive in mid-2023, Russian forces have steadily advanced in the Donbas region. The pace of their progress has recently accelerated, although both sides continue to suffer heavy casualties.
Meanwhile, Western political support for Ukraine is weakening. Donald Trump has called for Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war, arguing that prolonging the conflict serves little purpose. A potential settlement would likely involve Ukraine conceding Crimea to Russia and acknowledging some level of Russian control over much of the Donbas region.
Western discussions have largely focused on Ukraine’s resilience, but little attention has been given to Russia’s capacity to sustain its war effort. The recently published Routledge Handbook of Soviet and Russian Military Studies explores how Russia’s military has evolved from the Napoleonic Wars to the present-day conflict in Ukraine.
Russia’s Military and Economic Advantages
Russia enjoys significant advantages over Ukraine in manpower, resources, and domestic support. With a population more than three times the size of Ukraine’s, Russia can sustain its military campaign far longer. Public sentiment has also remained largely in Putin’s favor, as many Russians remain insulated from the war’s economic and human costs.
Despite Western sanctions and high inflation, Russia’s economy continues to function. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, Russia’s GDP grew by 4.1% in 2024, fueled in large part by military spending.
Other key economic indicators remain positive. Unemployment reached record post-Soviet lows in mid-2024, now hovering at around 2%. These factors have allowed Russia to maintain a steady war effort.
Manpower and Recruitment Strategies
While Ukraine has struggled to maintain troop strength, Russia has managed to replenish its forces without mass conscription. Kyiv has had to mobilize less experienced and less willing conscripts while offering financial incentives to attract younger recruits.
Russia, on the other hand, has increasingly relied on volunteer forces rather than mandatory conscription. Volunteers receive high salaries and significant benefits, making their deaths less likely to impact public morale. So far, Russia has not needed to deploy its annual conscription pool to sustain its operations.
A Shift in Russia’s War Tactics
Russia entered the war in February 2022 with an understaffed and overstretched military, expecting a swift victory in Kyiv. The initial invasion plan proved unrealistic, as Ukrainian resistance forced Russian forces into retreat.
Following Ukraine’s successful counterattacks in late 2022, Russia adjusted its approach. Instead of attempting rapid territorial gains, it adopted a more methodical, attrition-based strategy that aligns with its traditional military strengths.
Artillery and fortified positions have long been key to Russian battlefield doctrine. This was evident during the summer 2023 counteroffensive, where Russia successfully absorbed Ukraine’s attacks before launching its own incremental advances.
Russia has also improved coordinated infantry assaults, integrating drones and small storm detachments to weaken Ukrainian defenses. While still not as tactically sophisticated as some Western armies, the Russian military has become far more effective than it was in late 2022 and early 2023.
Lessons from Past Battles
The shift in Russian tactics contrasts sharply with its initial reckless assault on Kyiv and the high-casualty operations of Wagner Group forces in 2023. The costly fight for Bakhmut, where Wagner suffered massive losses, is no longer indicative of Russia’s approach.
Recent reports suggest that current Russian forces are not suffering losses at the same unsustainable levels. Instead, Moscow has refined its operational strategy, ensuring that even slow progress on the battlefield remains sustainable over time.
What Comes Next?
If Russia rejects the ceasefire, its forces will continue pressing their advantage in Donbas and other contested regions. If it accepts, the war’s dynamics could shift dramatically, depending on the terms of the agreement.
With Western support for Ukraine diminishing, pressure is mounting on Kyiv to negotiate. A prolonged conflict without clear military gains could leave Ukraine in a weaker negotiating position in the future.
As the situation unfolds, the fate of the war may soon rest on Russia’s response to the U.S. proposal—and whether Ukraine can maintain both military momentum and Western backing in the months ahead.
